7 Harsh Realities of How Depreciation Actually Creates Affordable Housing

Urban Economics & Social Reality

7 Harsh Realities of How Depreciation Actually Creates Affordable Housing

A reflection on missed buses, escape rooms, and the “merciful process of entropy” that keeps cities standing.

The doors hissed shut just as my sneaker hit the curb. It wasn’t even a close call, really- of variance between the bus driver’s schedule and my own sense of urgency. I watched the red taillights fade into the morning haze, leaving me with the sudden, sharp realization that my entire morning had just been rerouted by a system that doesn’t care about my ten-second margin of error. Standing there, smelling the lingering scent of diesel and damp pavement, I realized this is the quintessential experience of the modern urbanite. We live in the gaps. We survive on the margins that the planners and the developers forgot to pave over.

As an escape room designer, my entire professional life is built on the architecture of frustration. I spend my days calculating exactly how much “struggle” a person can handle before they stop having fun. I build puzzles that are meant to be solved, systems that have a deliberate exit. But the housing market isn’t an escape room. There is no hidden key under the rug, and the clock doesn’t stop after sixty minutes. In the real world, the most effective “puzzle” being solved is how to remove the bottom rungs of the ladder while telling everyone the view from the top is getting better.

1. The Ten-Second Gap in Policy

We have this collective hallucination that affordable housing is something you can architect into existence from scratch. We sit in boardrooms and look at renderings of shimmering glass towers, pointing to the five percent “affordable allocation” as if we’ve solved a mathematical proof. But nobody actually builds affordable housing. They build expensive housing that eventually, through the slow and merciful process of entropy, becomes affordable.

Housing is a commodity that matures by rotting. It’s the only thing we buy that we expect to get cheaper as it gets worse, yet we’ve based our entire social stability on the hope that it will also somehow make us rich. When I missed that bus, I was victim to a schedule that didn’t account for the human element. Similarly, our housing policies don’t account for the fact that a building’s most productive social years are often its most neglected architectural years. The “affordable” stock is simply the stuff that hasn’t been “reimagined” yet.

2. The Mirage of the Master Plan

I once designed a room where the players had to find a way to lower the ceiling to reach a vent. The trick was that the floor was actually rising, not the ceiling coming down. It’s a perspective shift. We think we are building our way out of a housing crisis, but we are actually renovating our way into one.

Perspective Shift:

The low-rise brick building on the corner of my old neighborhood was a masterclass in unintentional efficiency. It was built in . It had drafty windows, a lobby that smelled faintly of floor wax and old mail, and a radiator that clanked like a ghost in a machine.

It was also home to a nurse, a school administrator, and three young guys sharing a two-bedroom. It wasn’t “designed” to be affordable. It was just old. It had depreciated to the point where a normal salary could actually sustain a life within its walls. Then, a private equity group bought it. They didn’t add new units. They didn’t increase the density. They just “reimagined” it.

3. The Depreciation Engine

The real engine of affordability in any city is the age distribution of the stock. It’s a pipe. At one end, you pour in shiny, overpriced luxury units with floor-to-ceiling windows and “wellness suites.” At the other end, decades later, these buildings should theoretically emerge as the humble, accessible homes for the middle class. But we’ve found a way to clog the pipe.

NEW LUXURY

The Clogged Pipe: Every “reset” of a building’s depreciation harvests the discount time provided to the workforce.

Every time a developer “upgrades” a building, they are essentially resetting the clock on depreciation. They strip out the charm and the wear and tear, replace it with LVP flooring that looks like grey-washed wood, and hike the rent by 40%. They aren’t creating value; they are harvesting the discount that time had generously provided to the local workforce. The nurse and the school administrator didn’t get a 40% raise. They just got a “reimagined” lobby they never asked for and a move-out notice they couldn’t afford.

4. The Ghost of the School Administrator

When we talk about “the market,” we tend to use abstract nouns. We talk about “supply” and “demand” as if they are invisible gods. But the market is just people trying not to miss their version of the bus. When that building was renovated, the school administrator moved three zip codes away. Her commute went from twelve minutes to fifty-five.

The “reimagined” building now markets itself to “young professionals” and “digital nomads.” It has a Peloton room where the old laundry area used to be. But the city is now functionally poorer. It has traded a school administrator for a guy who works in “growth hacking” for a startup that probably won’t exist in . We are cannibalizing the infrastructure of our daily lives-the people who actually make a city function-for the sake of a fresh coat of paint and a higher yield.

5. The LVP Revolution

In my escape rooms, I use a lot of “faux” materials. I can make a plywood wall look like a 14th-century dungeon with enough paint and lighting. It only has to last for the duration of the game. The tragedy of modern “affordability” projects is that they use the same logic. The renovations we see today are often superficial-the architectural equivalent of a “filter” on a photo.

Legacy Stock

Durable & Deep

Solid mid-century builds meant to age over .

The “Filter” Stock

Superficial & Fragile

Materials with a lifespan sold at premium prices.

They take a solid, mid-century building and wrap it in materials that have a lifespan, then charge prices that suggest it will last a century. This creates a secondary crisis: we are trading long-term, durable, naturally-depreciating stock for short-term, “premium” stock that will fall apart before it ever becomes truly affordable again. We are building a future of “disposable” housing that will never have the chance to age into affordability because it will need a total overhaul every just to stay standing.

6. The Financial Cushion

The frustration of the mid-market tenant is that they are caught in a pincer movement. On one side, the stock of older, cheaper apartments is being aggressively renovated. On the other, new construction is targeted almost exclusively at the top 10% of earners. For someone living in a city like Dubai, where the rental market often demands huge upfront payments, this creates a liquidity crisis that can feel like being trapped in a room with a shrinking floor.

Bridging the chasm between salary and lump-sum reality:

Explore monthly rent installments from SplitRent

This is where the financial architecture has to evolve to meet the reality of the physical architecture. If the buildings won’t get cheaper, the way we pay for them has to get smarter. Systems that allow for monthly rent installments from SplitRent are a necessary response to a market that has forgotten how to provide for its core workers. When the gap between a salary and a lump-sum annual payment becomes a chasm, you need a bridge. It’s about creating a margin of error for the person who, like me this morning, missed the bus by .

7. The Leaking Pipe

We are pushing hard at the new construction end of the pipe, but we are ignoring the fact that the pipe is draining faster than we can fill it. For every 100 units of “affordable” housing we build through government programs, we lose 500 units to “reimagining” and gentrification. It’s a losing game of Tetris.

Built

100

Lost

500

A losing game of Tetris: We lose 5 affordable units for every 1 we build.

The solution isn’t just more building; it’s a radical appreciation for the un-renovated. We need to find ways to keep the “old and drafty” buildings in the hands of the people who need them, without the pressure to turn every square foot into a “premium experience.” We need to stop treating housing as an asset class that must always be “optimized” and start treating it as the background noise of a functioning society.

•••

I eventually caught the next bus. I sat there, staring out the window at a row of older apartments that were currently being fitted with new, black-framed windows. I could see the scaffolding. I could see the “Luxury Living Coming Soon” banners. I thought about the people who were currently packing their boxes inside those units, wondering which zip code would take them in.

They weren’t looking for luxury. They were looking for the they needed to keep their lives on track. We’ve built a world where the puzzles are getting harder, the exits are getting smaller, and the “reimagining” of our homes is slowly making them uninhabitable for the very people who built the city in the first place. It’s a design flaw on a massive scale, and no amount of quartz-lite countertops can hide the fact that we’re running out of time to fix it.